The Captain just informed us that there is a storm blowing in the Pacific right now that makes the one we just went through look like spring breezes on an April mud puddle. This time he is not apologizing for possible discomfort, he is telling us flat out he won't sail into it. We will spend an extra night in Puntas Arenas, Chile, hoping the storm blows itself sufficiently out to allow us to head out into the Pacific. He even said we may have to curtail our itinerary. (If something has to go, I really hope it's not Easter Island.) He is in communication with Holland America headquarters in Seattle and will keep us informed. (All this announced in his elegant British accent which, to American ears, makes it sound like everything is completely under control.)
I wish I had civilized Internet access so I could do my own research into this storm. If anyone is so inclined and can email information to me or add it in comments, I would be grateful.
Meanwhile, we're sailing away from Ushuaia, the tail end of the Andes flaunting snow-tipped peaks in the sunshine as the wind whips little whitecaps in the water of the Beagle Channel. Life is good.
I am very poor at finding smth about the storm...I can not fing anything at all...
ReplyDeleteI had no luck either. And what info I did find on weather and the South Pacific was indecipherable.
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ReplyDeleteHi Roberta,
ReplyDeleteCould this be the one:
040900z position near 17.4s 150.6e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 10p, located approximately 265 nm east of Cairns, Australia, has tracked east-southeastward at 04 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery indicates a slowly consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC) with persistent deep convection over the LLCC. A 040625z SSMI image depicts tightly-curved low-level banding wrapping into an elongated llcc; however, the bulk of the deep convection is displaced over the western semi-Circle. Radar imagery from Willis Island also shows weak deep convective banding but does show a defined center on the southeast edge of the deep convection. The current position is based on the radar imagery and the SSMI image with good confidence.
Despite the lack of convective organization, surface observations from Willis Island, about 70 nm NNW of center, indicate sustained surface winds of 35-40 knots with slp near 995 mb. Flinder's reef, about 100 nm WSW of center, currently show sustained southerly winds of 33 knots with slp near 995 mb. The current intensity is assessed at 40 knots based on the observations and recent scatterometer data.
Dvorak intensity estimates remain too low and range from 25 to 30 knots. Tc 10p is tracking eastward under the steering influence of the low- to mid-level near equatorial ridge and is forecast by all the dynamic models to track eastward toward Vanuatu through tau 72.
Thereafter, the system should turn southeastward as it begins to track along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The available dynamic model guidance (nogaps, GFS, WBAR, GFDN and ecmwf) is in tight agreement with some minor variations in track speed; therefore, the jtwc track is positioned close to the model consensus but slightly slower, favoring the more climatological ECMWF track speeds. Tc 10p is expected to slowly intensify through tau 36 due to moderate vertical wind shear (20-30 knots) as well as the elongated nature of the LLCC. After tau 36, tc 10p should intensify steadily reaching a peak intensity of 65 knots by tau 96. Overall, the environment should remain marginally favorable due to the lack of a significant outflow mechanism.
Cheers,
- Richard.
P.S. Hope the ship's library has a good book on meteorology ;-)
Not sure, Richard.. We're currently at 70 degrees W and the storm is at 150 degrees E, which is a long way away, even at 53 degrees S. And, as you say, a good dummy's guide to meteorology might be nice. I will check the library tomorrow.
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